Ski proximate submarkets have performed remarkably well over the past 20 years with a CAGR approximating 6.36%. The worst performing periods were 1998-1999 when capital was diverted to double digit stock market bubble returns and the post 9/11 terrorism/war years of 2001-2003. 2004 marked the beginning of Federal monetary policy manipulation producing the biggest real estate bull market run in Post Depression history, until the good times came to an end in 1st quarter 2008. High water mark valuations have dropped by about 10% but at the cost of decreasing overall volume by half.

The spread between Active Listings and trailing 12 month Sold averages has started to narrow as compared to 2009 when the financial markets collapsed. Each pair of submarket bars measure the average Active price per square foot versus the the average Sold price per square foot for calendar year 2010. Breckenridge appears to be lagging Eagle County in terms of discounting, estimated at ten percent (10%) for 2010, based upon an internal Loss of Value Analysis. Drastic reductions in market volume and number of recorded transactions leads us to believe than another round of ten percent (10%) discounting is likely by the end of 2011. Much will depend upon summer inventory levels so stay tuned for further updates in this matter.Property prices are a function of the illustrated Sold price per square numbers times square footage. In order to estimate any anticipated cost in the selected ski proximate neighborhood simply choose an envelope size and multiply times the Solds number. The green background bars represent standard deviation which measure the plus/minus range for the center two thirds of the data field after eliminating minimum/maximum aberrations.

Inventory levels remain surprisingly modest with no real evidence of over-supply for properties priced less than $2.5 million, two bedrooms minimum. There are currently 150 properties on the market in Central Breckenridge. 2010 saw 75 sales making the absorption ratio 1.97 years which from a historical perspective is about average.The absorption ratio (years to sell) is a key indicator as to a market's overall strength or weakness and is an indicator we carefully monitor. Should the absorption ratio break 3 years prices would most likely have to fall. However, if supply is reasonably in sync with demand the market is more likely to have stabilized.